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They predict to the business aviation industry shake off the shackles of the debilitating economic recession within 24 months and begin a prolonged period of expansion, according to the latest 10-year industry forecast released at the NBAA business aviation convention by aerospace supplier Honeywell. The 19th edition of the annual Business Aviation Outlook predicts delivery of around 11,000 new business jets from 2010 to 2020, generating estimated industry sales in excess of $225 billion. "This represents approximately a 10% increase in total expected sales value in the industry versus the prior 10-year forecast issued in 2009," says Honeywell. A slow but noticeable shift in demand profile is expected across business jet segments in the coming five years. Very light jets - Cessna Citation Mustang, Embraer Phenom 100 - will account for around 25% of demand. Demand for light and superlight jets - the Bombardier Learjet 40, Cessna Citation XLS+ - will amount to 22%. Midsize and large-cabin jets - the Hawker 900XP, Bombardier Challenger 300, Dassault Falcon 900LX - will account for 32% of demand. Long-range and ultra-long-range jets - the Gulfstream G550, and Dassault Falcon 7X - will total 21% of the projected demand up to 2015. "Sustained interest in the long- and ultra-long-range segment has been present for several years and reflects increased need for aircraft capable of transpacific flights, as well as the growth in demand in other regions requiring more long-range operations as trade and economic growth is still anticipated," reports Honeywell. "Deliveries over the next 10-year period will likely be constrained to somewhere between 500 and 1,000 aircraft during the forecast period. Corporate-configured airliners, meanwhile - Boeing BBJ and Airbus Corporate Jet liner families - will represent around 20 aircraft per year until 2020," it adds. |
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